How far have house prices really fallen in 2023?

It's been an interesting 12 months for the property market. With consecutive interest rate rises and headlines of a house price crash. It would be a fair assumption that it's been a disastrous year for the property market.

But what's really happened with house prices in 2023? In this update, Sales Director, Jake discusses the various house price indexes as well as the numbers we've seen to provide insights into how prices have altered in 2023.


October Market Overview

In this month's update, we begin by discussing market activity and demand. Notably, we've observed that demand has remained remarkably strong, with a growing number of people actively viewing properties for sale compared to the same period last year. New listings and sales have increased by approximately 15% year-over-year.

The Housing Market and Price Sensitivity

The real estate market is in a state of flux, and it's starting to feel more like a "normal" market, albeit with one notable exception – price reductions. Approximately 20% more properties had their asking price reduced in October 2023 compared to October 2022. This price sensitivity is affecting both buyers and sellers.

Analysing House Prices

House prices are the elephant in the room. Gone are the days of double-digit growth that defined 2021 and 2022. In October 2023, the number of price reductions increased by 22% compared to the same time last year. This shift in pricing dynamics is a significant market trend.

House Price Indexes

To provide a comprehensive view of the housing market, we'll delve into the latest reports from various house price indexes. Our analysis includes insights from Zoopla, Rightmove, Nationwide, and Halifax. Zoopla reports a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, while Rightmove, which looks at asking prices, indicates a year-on-year drop of 0.8%. Nationwide and Halifax, which consider their own mortgage customers, have reported drops of 3.3% and 4.7%, respectively.

The Land Registry stands as the ultimate source of truth in the real estate world. Why? Because it's based on actual property sale prices at the point of completion. It reports a national increase of 1.7% year-over-year. However, it's crucial to note that Land Registry data may lag behind the latest market conditions, with the latest data typically based on sales completed around January - February of the current year.

The Local Property Market

While our local property market has shown remarkable resilience, it's crucial to acknowledge its growing sensitivity to prices. We've observed a year-to-date drop of approximately 5% in prices. It's only a matter of time before this drop starts to show through in some of the local data.