What’s Really Happening with UK House Prices Right Now
If you’ve seen the recent headlines, you might believe that the property market is heading into a downturn. Reports like “House prices fall by most in two years” have been doing the rounds, triggered by Nationwide’s latest house price index showing a 0.8% dip in June 2025 compared to the previous month.
But is this a sign of a major decline, or just part of the usual market ebb and flow? Let’s unpack the current data and trends.
Comparing Key House Price Reports
To get a clearer view, it's important to examine the major sources tracking property prices:
- Nationwide: Reported a 0.8% drop in June.
- Halifax: Indicated no change—flat monthly performance.
- Rightmove: Focuses on asking prices rather than sale prices, noted a 0.3% drop.
- Land Registry: Reported a more pronounced fall of 2.7% in April (note: their data lags behind).
What’s Behind the Land Registry’s Drop?
The 2.7% drop shown in the Land Registry figures for April might seem alarming—but there’s a likely explanation.
The end of March marked a stamp duty deadline, prompting a surge of completions, particularly in higher-value properties. Many buyers rushed to finalise transactions to beat the cut-off, boosting March’s figures and making April’s numbers seem unusually low in comparison.
In fact, some estate agencies reported double the usual number of completions in March, a clear sign the data was skewed by short-term activity.
Timing and Transaction Lag Matters
Another key consideration: Land Registry data reflects completed sales, not when offers were first accepted. With the average property transaction taking 18 to 20 weeks, April’s reported figures actually stem from deals struck around December 2024.
And December tends to be a quiet month for the housing market. Fewer deals are agreed, and those that are tend to be lower value—again, something that can pull down the average when reported months later.
Not All Areas Are Affected Equally
It’s vital to remember that these reports reflect national averages, but property markets are highly regional. Averages can’t capture the nuances of local conditions.
According to Rightmove’s own analysis, larger price reductions are mainly occurring in higher-value southern regions. Meanwhile, more affordable areas—especially in the North—are holding steady or even seeing growth.
That matches what local data shows. Figures from TwentyEA reveal that in our area, the average sale price rose from £228,000 in early 2024 to £240,000 in the first half of 2025—a 5% annual increase based on completed transactions, not estimates.
Where Is the Market Heading?
Despite some month-on-month dips in the national figures, there are plenty of signs pointing to ongoing market stability:
- More properties are hitting the market, increasing buyer choice.
- Sellers are pricing more competitively to secure deals.
- First-time buyer activity is up in 2025, creating a strong demand base.
- Mortgage rates have remained steady, helping maintain affordability for many.
Look Past the Headlines
In short, while it’s easy to get caught up in negative media headlines, the underlying data—particularly when broken down regionally—tells a more balanced story.
House prices are not collapsing, especially outside the South. If you’re in a more affordable region or targeting first-time buyer markets, things remain active and competitive.
We’ll continue monitoring the numbers and sharing insights to help you make sense of what’s really going on in the property market.
